Social Studies
Physicist Stephen Eubank: Modeling Disease, Disaster, and Traffic
Stephen Eubank Studies Habits
Physicist Eubank builds models to predict the spread of disease.
Complex systems
Have multiple components interacting in infinite ways
Are affected by interactions of components
Can be studied using mathematics
Question:
Are humans part of a complex system?
Photo: John McCormick
Answer: Yes
Humans are part of a complex system known as a social network.
Even if you've never met him, your friend's teacher's husband is part of your social network.
Complexity Made Easy
Earth's Climate: a Complex System
Static components, such as topography
Dynamic components, such as ocean current, heat, rainfall
What are the possible results of the interactions of these components, and are the results always the same? Why or why not?
Traffic: Another Complex System
Transportation Analysis System (TRANSIMS)
Tools and Tricks of Eubank's Trade
Public surveys, census reports, transportation data
Linking an individual to personal contacts, those contacts to their contacts, and so on
Changes in plans or the weather
The MIDAS Touch
Made up of a network of government-funded interdisciplinary researchers
Uses mathematical and analytical models in high-performance computer simulations
Predicts spread of disease, such as pandemic flu
Estimates the potential effectiveness and timing of interventions
Provides information for other researchers and for public health officials
Models of Infectious Disease Study (MIDAS)
MIDAS: Chicago Outbreak
Modeled spread of pandemic flu in Chicago
Used data about social network, historical data about spread of contagious diseases, and information about avian flu itself
Modeled by 60 computers in 10 hours
Photo: Stephen Eubank
Future Uses of Computer Modeling?
Predicting human behavior
Understanding the spread of disease in insect communities
Identifying the most effective modes of communication during emergencies
Photo: Stephen Eubank
Research Applications
How do simulation failures help researchers who study complex systems?